Recently, there has been talking in markets that the collapse has begun in America, that there will be an economic bottleneck, and the Dollar will lose its strength in the money markets.

We expect the Dollar to lose its strength. Maybe in 15, maybe in 20 years but not 2022! Why?

1. Disasters and crises feed the Dollar.

According to the Dollar's Value Index, the approximate value gain in the last five years has been about 30%, even in itself. In particular, the index, measured in March 2020, when Covid-19 had a bomb impact, is a record. When we examine the index backward, it fell only 5 points below its expected value in the 2008 crisis. The scale of its impact in such a situation was such that Iceland's bankruptcy upset the euro, but at the same time, the Dollar still increased its competitive power against the euro.

2. Globally, about 60% of the foreign exchange reserves at the central banks of countries are held in dollars.

Among the 2020 foreign exchange reserves, dollar reserves are the highest, with China at $ 3.4 trillion, Japan at $ 1.4 trillion, Switzerland at $ 1 trillion, Russia at $ 585 billion, and India at around $ 550 billion.

It does not seem possible for the Dollar to depreciate because the Dollar depreciation will hit the top economies with the highest dollar reserves in the central bank - China, Japan, Switzerland, Russia, and India as the five stars very hard. Moreover, at the same time, China and Japan are the two countries where America's debt is highest, and it seems unlikely that they will allow this economy to collapse. China and Japan will not want to endure the inability to collect their receivables in exchange for American government bonds that they receive in exchange for their exports, especially when they are still earning reliable and relatively high-interest rates.

3. America has control over SWIFT operations.

After September 11, another disaster, America oversees transactions through the swift network under Federal law. Although Swift is a payment network headquartered in Belgium, it is no coincidence that the largest data centers are in America. Before any transactions are made in dollars, they are received by the correspondent bank in America and filtered by OFAC (U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Controls). Improper operations are blocked and not performed. So: all dollar transfers are controlled by America, which is also accepted by European Union law. America is again the custodian of the use of dollars in international trade and money transfers. In international trade, while the currency used by more than 60% is the U.S. Dollar, is it possible for countries with high trade volume to remain silent on the depreciation of the U.S. Dollar?

Between 1944 and 1971, Dollar was indexed to gold and continued to be extremely solid, but in 71, it ceased to be indexed to gold due to the war economy and the need for financing in the Vietnam disaster.

The Second World War also served as another disaster. After the war, America took to the stage with aid plans to support Europe and disbanded Japan, unable to meet the most basic needs. With the Marshall Plan and the Dodge Plan, the American Dollar, together with the confidence it once again gained, has become an investment and intervention instrument, strengthening its international dominance.

What's changed, what's going to change? The structure of money, maybe. The Dollar life is not infinite; when you look at the history of money, even the most substantial coins in the past have been historical. Although there is a prediction of change, with the Covid-19 disaster, this change process has only begun and will certainly not have an immediate effect. We see that digital and cryptocurrencies are still not an alternative structure, and therefore the intrusive and dominating influence of the Dollar will continue globally for some time to come.

For me, the Dollar, which had been fed by crises and adapts quickly and directs each time, will continue on its way, becoming stronger; this is the whisper of history.

If a currency is to depreciate, the risk of the euro is much higher. The euro's dominating effect is only 20%, which is three times lower than the euro in simple mathematics, mainly because of the order I mentioned, which is almost impossible in the short term.

For the creation of alternatives, Revolution on Revolution, even a projection of an average of 15-20 years, instead of a year or two, seems necessary. In this process, we can say that there will be fluctuations in favor of the Dollar. Digital and cryptocurrencies, creating and strengthening alternatives, will not take place in less than 20 years.

As throughout history, gold, silver, and precious metals continue to protect themselves as commodities, while the Dollar will still emerge from this crisis by winning.

As for Turkey, it will have a chance to keep interest rates under control, ensure stability in its growth-targeted policy, and in particular, if it gains momentum in exports while increasing employment and production. With the Central Bank's dollar reserve around $ 95 billion, economists say an average of $ 105 billion more funds are needed for a healthy posture, while possible fluctuations in the current situation may be at our door. It seems hard to resist the Dollar's rise in the short term, while manufacturing is falling and unemployment is rising.